There is very high uncertainty on the
forecasts contained in the Public Finance Document (DFP)
government economic blueprint due to the Trump tariff chaos,
the Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB) said Friday sating there
was a strong chance of their being slashed again.
The government has halved its 2025 growth forecast for this year
to 0.6% in the new Public Finance
Document (DFP), formerly the DEF, its economic blueprint,
Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti told a press conference
Wednesday.
"We have decided to adopt growth estimates aligned with those
recently reduced by the Bank of Italy, so we have real GDP
growth of 0.6% in 2025, 0.8% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027,
effectively halving the Plan's forecast of 1.2%", he said.
Giorgetti added that the budget deficit would be 3.3% this year
and that the planned trajectory had been respected.
"Deficit at 3.3% in 2025, 2.8% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027",
Giorgetti told the press conference after the cabinet meeting
that approved the new DFP.
"The cash effect of the superbonus credits will tend to deflate,
even the trajectory plan based on the new European governance is
respected: we forecast 1.3%, then 1.6%, 1.9%, 1.7% and 1.5% in
2029."
Giorgetti added defence spending would be raised to 2% of GDP as
per a NATO request.
But the UPB said Friday that the scenario 'is
however shaken by very recent events, which could have a
significant impact also on the Italian economy, at the moment
not reasonably quantifiable.
"The uncertainty that characterizes the forecasts is therefore
extraordinarily high, the risks are clearly oriented downwards."
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